A researcher has warned that artificial intelligence could eliminate many jobs within the next 20 years.
Adam Dorr, Director of Research at the think tank RethinkX, warned that by 2045, AI and robots could replace most human jobs, and there is little time left to prepare.
In an interview with The Guardian, Dorr emphasized that machines are advancing at a remarkable pace and will soon be able to perform nearly all human tasks with equal or better quality—and at a lower cost.
Referring to over 1,500 documented technological disruptions, Dorr stated that once a new technology captures even a small share of the market, it typically dominates the market within 15 to 20 years.
Dorr believes that some jobs will remain—particularly those based on human connection, trust, or ethical complexity, such as sports coaching or politics. However, such jobs are limited in number and cannot employ four billion people.
According to Dorr, the future could either lead to a deep class divide or become an opportunity for “universal abundance”—a society where human needs are met without traditional labor. But achieving such a future would require a fundamental redefinition of concepts like work, value, and ownership.
Similar concerns have been raised by leading AI researchers. Geoffrey Hinton, one of the pioneers of the field, warned that “routine cognitive” jobs are at the greatest risk. He considers physical jobs like plumbing to be safer in the short term.
The CEO of Anthropic predicted that within the next five years, half of all jobs across various fields may disappear. In contrast, figures like Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, argue that AI will transform jobs rather than eliminate them. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, also emphasizes job transformation, believing that new types of jobs will emerge—even if they are “more absurd” than before.
David Autor, an MIT economist, offers a darker perspective. He suggests that even if jobs aren’t entirely eliminated, people’s skills might become worthless, creating a “Mad Max” economy in which everyone competes for a limited number of high-value roles.
